William Bernstein suggests that an investor can evaluate their risk tolerance based on how they reacted to the Global Financial Crisis of 2008:

• Sold: low risk tolerance
• Held steady: moderate risk tolerance
• Bought more: high risk tolerance
• Bought more and hoped for further declines: very high risk tolerance

Pick a risk level that lets you sleep at night. Most investors severely overestimate their tolerance for risk, only realizing their true risk tolerance during a market crash when their portfolio value tanks. It’s also been theorized that investors may be embarrassed to admit to their advisor – or to themselves – that they have a low tolerance for risk. Don’t be.
It is imperative to have realistic expectations of both the markets and of one’s own behaviors. The behavioral aspect of investing is unfortunately very real and can have significant consequences. Emotional responses to one’s environment – in this case a financial environment – are hardwired in the human brain. Are you going to lose sleep and panic sell if your portfolio value drops by 57% like it did for an S&P 500 index investor in 2008?

Let's have an honest discussion about this crucial aspect of investing.

“Expect to receive a scam phone call. It won’t be an illegal scam call. It will be an official scam call from the Social Security Administration itself.’’


The issue? The SSA will offer a check equal to six months of past-due benefits, but Kotlikoff explains, “Going for their ‘deal’ means losing ten months of DRCs (delayed retirement benefits). Your benefit will be lower, forever, by 6.67%.’’  


“I’ve been calling them (SSA) out for a long time; I’ve never been shy. Things like this have to be said, otherwise, nobody gets the point. The biggest scam is calling people before they’re 70 to dangle that big check if they start their benefits right away. You do that and you will set your benefits back for the rest of your life. That is just unbelievable.’’

​https://rethinking65.com/2021/10/29/getting-to-know-economist-laurence-kotlikoff/

Your Dollars are a Melting Ice Cube

The latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) numbers came out this week, and they don’t look good. Official numbers say that prices over the past 12 months have jumped an average of 6.2%, which is an incredible amount of purchasing power to be losing each year. It’s also the highest inflation we’ve seen in the USA for 30 years, and some suspect that the number could be even higher than what’s been officially reported.

The recent surge in the crypto asset partly seems to have been caused by investors piling in, seeing it as a hedge against inflation. Some appear to have been enticed by the argument that the huge monetary stimulus programmes unleashed by central bank is fuelling inflation which will see the value of money decrease over time, whereas Bitcoin has a fixed limit on the number of coins which can be created. 

​https://www.advisorpedia.com/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-bounces-near-record-highs-amid-inflation-fears/

Adoption is heating up as bitcoin becomes mainstream.  Game theory built into NGU (number go up)  means that it will become  a race to  own some of the limited supply - Jon

"Commonwealth Bank of Australia will allow its customers to hold and use bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies via its 6.5 million-user banking app in a bid to appeal to young customers and keep pace with rivals such as Square and PayPal, which already allow users to trade and spend bitcoin."

https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/cba-to-add-crypto-to-its-banking-app-20211102-p595da