AuthorContrarian thoughts on the world markets (this is not financial advice). ArchivesCategories |
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Our Own Worst Enemy12/13/2021 It has long been noted that investors - individual and institutional alike - tend to be their own worst enemies. They have an uncanny ability to buy stocks near market tops and sell near market bottoms. It's probably more accurate to reverse this implied causality. Markets top because the last investor in the herd has piled in, and markets bottom because the laggards of the herd has exited.
https://alphascientist.com/investor_flows.html
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What is a Trust?12/9/2021 A trust is a legal arrangement for the transfer of property by a grantor to a trustee for the benefit of a beneficiary. There are many types of trusts to consider, each designed to help achieve a specific goal. With the current high federal estate tax exemption, the purpose of a trust today is more about retaining control over assets during the grantor’s life and upon the grantor’s death than creating an estate tax saving plan.
https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/personal-finance/reasons-to-consider-a-trust
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What Is Your Risk Tolerance?11/20/2021 William Bernstein suggests that an investor can evaluate their risk tolerance based on how they reacted to the Global Financial Crisis of 2008:
Pick a risk level that lets you sleep at night. Most investors severely overestimate their tolerance for risk, only realizing their true risk tolerance during a market crash when their portfolio value tanks. It’s also been theorized that investors may be embarrassed to admit to their advisor – or to themselves – that they have a low tolerance for risk. Don’t be. It is imperative to have realistic expectations of both the markets and of one’s own behaviors. The behavioral aspect of investing is unfortunately very real and can have significant consequences. Emotional responses to one’s environment – in this case a financial environment – are hardwired in the human brain. Are you going to lose sleep and panic sell if your portfolio value drops by 57% like it did for an S&P 500 index investor in 2008? Let's have an honest discussion about this crucial aspect of investing.
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Social Security Scam11/18/2021 “Expect to receive a scam phone call. It won’t be an illegal scam call. It will be an official scam call from the Social Security Administration itself.’’
The issue? The SSA will offer a check equal to six months of past-due benefits, but Kotlikoff explains, “Going for their ‘deal’ means losing ten months of DRCs (delayed retirement benefits). Your benefit will be lower, forever, by 6.67%.’’ “I’ve been calling them (SSA) out for a long time; I’ve never been shy. Things like this have to be said, otherwise, nobody gets the point. The biggest scam is calling people before they’re 70 to dangle that big check if they start their benefits right away. You do that and you will set your benefits back for the rest of your life. That is just unbelievable.’’ https://rethinking65.com/2021/10/29/getting-to-know-economist-laurence-kotlikoff/
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Vastly Underperform the S&P 500?11/17/2021 The average investor barely beats inflation, and vastly underperforms the S&P 500. As calculated by Dalbar Inc, and charted here by JP Morgan, That’s mainly because investors tend to buy stocks or funds during market tops when they are expensive and all the news is good, and then sell stocks and funds after they crash, when they are cheap. They keep doing that over years and the returns end up being quite bad.
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Highest Inflation in 30 Years11/12/2021 Your Dollars are a Melting Ice Cube
The latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) numbers came out this week, and they don’t look good. Official numbers say that prices over the past 12 months have jumped an average of 6.2%, which is an incredible amount of purchasing power to be losing each year. It’s also the highest inflation we’ve seen in the USA for 30 years, and some suspect that the number could be even higher than what’s been officially reported. |